Does a high probability mean the route will definitely reopen?
No. It means that historically similar route outages reopened within that horizon more often than not. It is still probabilistic.
Resources
Why reopen forecasts are probabilistic, not promises
Cexorer forecasts are designed to help with route timing under uncertainty. They estimate reopen likelihood for disabled routes based on historical off-spell patterns, not guaranteed exchange commitments.
What the forecast cards mean
A forecast card tells you how likely it is that a currently disabled deposit or withdrawal route will reopen based on historically similar outages.
It is a decision-support layer for timing, not a commitment that an exchange will reopen a route on schedule.
What drives uncertainty
Exchange maintenance behavior changes. Networks behave differently. Sample sizes can be thin. Some route types are noisier than others. That is why the product surfaces confidence and falls back to unavailable forecasts where the model basis is too weak.
- Forecasts rely on historical route-off spells
- Some routes have insufficient history for a reliable forecast
- Confidence can drop when the current outage lasts beyond normal historical bounds
How to use forecasts well
Use forecasts to rank waiting options, not to switch off judgment. Combine the probability view with fee context, incident history, and the operational cost of waiting.
FAQ
Why is there sometimes no forecast at all?
Because some routes do not have enough stable historical data to justify a forecast output.